Evaluation of probable economic and social damages from dangerous natural processes in the North-Western and Central Caucasus


View or download the article (Rus)

About the Author

Svetlana V. Badina

Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, laboratory of regional economy forecasting,
Nakhimovsky prospect, 47, 117418, Moscow, Russia,
E-mail: bad412@yandex.ru


The article proposes a method for probable economic and social damages evaluation by means of socio-economic potential density and spatial vulnerability indices in North-Western and Central Caucasus municipalities. The socio-economic potential is unevenly distributed in space. Its concentration is significantly affected by the terrain relief features. The study showed that for the considered North-Western and Central Caucasus regions as a whole, the following tendency is typical: the level of spatial potential vulnerability (probability of its crossing with natural hazard zone) decreases with administrative center height increasing, and density (spatial concentration), on the contrary, increases, reaching its maximum in the midlands and again falling at the highest hypsometric levels. In the North-Western and Central Caucasus, the maximum floods and mudflows risk was found in the municipalities of the Black Sea coast, the northern densely populated Caucasus Mountains foothills and at the same time in some republics mountainous regions, with various combinations of indices values and depending on this, with different potential damage levels. The natural risk factor is currently not well taken into account in strategic planning documents at various territorial levels, primarily regional. It is necessary to take this factor into account when formulating the goals and objectives, measures for their implementation and forecasting targets of the regional and municipal socio-economic development strategies.


North-West Caucasus, Central Caucasus, natural risk, damages, vulnerability, natural hazards, socio-economic potential of the territory.


  1. Badenkov Yu.P. Life in the mountains. Natural and cultural diversity—a variety of development models. Moscow: GEOS, 2017. 479 p. (in Russian).
  2. Badina S.V. Quantitative assessment of the socio-economic potential vulnerability in Russian Arctic permafrost degradation zone. Regional Studies, 2017, No 3 (57). P. 107–116 (in Russian).
  3. Badina S. Socio-economic potential of municipalities in the context of natural risk // IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2018. V. 190. P. 1–7.
  4. Baselyuk A.A. Dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena in the south of Russian European territory. Natural and social risks in the coastal zone of the Black and Azov Seas. Moscow: Triumf, 2012. P. 33−42 (in Russian).
  5. Chernomorets S., Perov V., Budarina O. et al. Debris flow hazards for regions of Russia: regional features and key events. Natural Hazards, Springer Verlag (Germany), 2017. V. 88. No 1. P. 199–235.
  6. Ivanov P.M., Gunya A.N., Mashkova R.A. Comprehensive assessment and development prospects of the mountain region natural-resource potential. Nalchik: Publishing House of Kabardino-Balkarian Scientific Center of RAS, 2008. 133 p. (in Russian).
  7. Koltermann P.K., Baburin V.L., Gavrilova S.A. et al. Quantification of economic and social risks of debris flows for the Black Sea coastal region of the North Caucasus Geography, environment, sustainability, 2014. No 3. P. 108–122.

For citation: Badina S.V. Evaluation of probable economic and social damages from dangerous natural processes in the North-Western and Central Caucasus InterCarto. InterGIS. GI support of sustainable development of territories: Proceedings of the International conference. Moscow: Moscow University Press, 2019. V. 25. Part 1. P. 219–228. DOI: 10.35595/2414-9179-2019-1-25-219-228