MODELING OF THE SOCIAL-ECONOMIC POTENTIAL DENSITY FIELD FOR TERRITORIAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSING TO NATURAL HAZARDS (CASE STUDY—RUSSIAN ARCTIC, NORTH CAUCASUS AND SOUTHERN SIBERIA)

http://doi.org/10.24057/2414-9179-2018-1-24-212-221

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About the Author

Svetlana V. Badina

Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, laboratory of regional economy forecasting,
Nakhimovsky prospect, 47, 117418, Moscow, Russia;

Lomonosov Moscow State University, the Faculty of Geography,
Leninskiye gory, 1, 119991, Moscow, Russia,

E-mail: bad412@yandex.ru

Abstract

In the article we have proved the possibilities of applying spatial interpolation method of data in socio-economic studies, including those aimed at assessing the vulnerability of society and economy to natural hazards (in the natural risks studying context). Continual structures (fields) constructed by interpolation allow estimating the probable value of the indicator in question at any point of the territory, since the socio-economic space is represented as an integral, not divided by administrative boundaries. Interpolation of the indicator of social-economic potential of the territory by a determinate method of inverse weighted distances was carried out for three contrasting (both internally and internally) macroregions with differences in the level of economic development of the territory: the Arctic zone of Russia, the North Caucasus and Southern Siberia. The regularities of changes in the spatial vulnerability of the social and economic potential (an integral index containing data on population, fixed assets, gross production and land use) within the macroregions under consideration are revealed, the areas of the highest probable natural risk are identified, provided hypothetical natural hazards are realized. The differentiation in the level of socio-economic potential vulnerability and the rate of its change between European and Asian sectors was identified in the Russian Arctic. The rate of change in the density of the potential from local maximums, and, accordingly, potential risks, as a whole, decreases with moving from the West to the East. Interpolations analysis for two mountain macroregions showed that the largest centers in South Siberia that are "stronger" in their force field have a greater mutual influence than in the North Caucasus. So the rate of change in the density of socio-economic potential in the space between them is lower.

Keywords

social-economic potential, vulnerability, natural risk, spatial interpolation.

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For citation: Badina S.V. MODELING OF THE SOCIAL-ECONOMIC POTENTIAL DENSITY FIELD FOR TERRITORIAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSING TO NATURAL HAZARDS (CASE STUDY—RUSSIAN ARCTIC, NORTH CAUCASUS AND SOUTHERN SIBERIA) Proceedings of the International conference “InterCarto. InterGIS”. 2018;24(1):212–221 http://doi.org/10.24057/2414-9179-2018-1-24-212-221