Implementation of large investment projects in the Northern sea route coastal territory in the context of climate changes

DOI: 10.35595/2414-9179-2022-1-28-91-104

View or download the article (Rus)

About the Authors

Svetlana V. Badina

Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography,
Leninskie Gory 1, Laboratory of Geoecology of the North, 119991, Moscow, Russia;

Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Laboratory of Regional Policy and Regional Investment Processes,
Stremyanny lane, 36, 117997, Moscow, Russia;

E-mail: bad412@yandex.ru

Alexey A. Pankratov

Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Economics, Department of Macroeconomic Policy and Strategic Management,
Leninskiye gory, 1, 46 bld, 119991, Moscow, Russia;
E-mail: pankratov_aleksey_ml@mail.ru

Abstract

The article presents an analysis of the prospects for infrastructure support for large investment projects in the mining industry on the coastal territory of the Northern Sea Route (those projects that should provide its cargo base in the long term). A value estimate was made for the transport infrastructure, which should appear before 2030. Its total value, according to calculations, is about 0.5 trillion rubles in 2021 prices. Of these, about 370 billion rubles related to the territory of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and 160 billion rubles—to the Krasnoyarsk krai. The following key infrastructure projects were analyzed: the construction of the “Utrenny” liquefied natural gas and stable gas condensate terminal in the Sabetta seaport, the construction of the Northern Latitudinal Railway, the construction of the Bovanenkovo-Sabetta railway, the construction of oil and coal terminals in the seaport Dixon, reconstruction of the Tiksi and Pevek seaports. The results obtained are necessary for predicting damages from natural hazards caused by climate change. The study analyzed the key trends in the construction industry, the dynamics of investments in fixed assets and fixed assets (primarily by the type of activity “Transportation and storage”) in the territory of the key region that forms the cargo base of the Northern Sea Route—the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. The analysis showed that the intensive dynamics characteristic of the fixed assets of the territory under consideration does not allow forecasting potential damage from climate change based on current data, but requires an assessment of the fixed assets value by the middle of the 21st century.

Keywords

Northern Sea Route, Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, investment project, transport infrastructure, climate change, permafrost degradation

References

  1. AMAP, 2017. Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) 2017. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), Oslo, Norway, 2017. 269 p.
  2. Analytical review “Comprehensive plan: a year and a half of implementation.” InfraOne Research. Moscow, 2020. 58 p. (in Russian).
  3. Anisimov O.A., Kokorev V.A. Climate in the Arctic zone of Russia: analysis of current changes and model projections for the 21st century. Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta, Seriya 5: Geografiya, 2016. No. 1. P. 61–69. (in Russian).
  4. Badina S.V. Estimation of the value of buildings and structures in the context of permafrost degradation: The case of the Russian Arctic. Polar Science, 2021. V. 29: 100730. DOI: 10.1016/j.polar.2021.100730.
  5. Badina S.V. Prediction of socioeconomic risks in the cryolithic zone of the Russian Arctic in the context of upcoming climate changes. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2020. V. 31. No. 4. P. 396–403. DOI: 10.1134/S1075700720040036.
  6. Badina S.V., Pankratov A.A. The value of buildings and structures for permafrost damage prediction: The case of eastern Russian Arctic. Geography, Environment, Sustainability. 2021. V. 14. No. 4. P. 83–92. DOI: 10.24057/2071-9388-2021-058.
  7. Grigoriev M.N. Investment projects and transport infrastructure of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. Scientific works of the Free Economic Society of Russia, 2021. V. 228. P. 265–282. (in Russian).
  8. Kislov A.V., Grebenets V.I., Evstigneev V.M., Konishchev V.N., Sidorova M.V., Surkova G.V., Tumel N.V. Consequences of possible climate warming in the XXI century in the north of Eurasia. Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta, Seriya 5: Geografiya, 2011. No. 3. P. 3–8. (in Russian).
  9. Kuznetsova O.V., Kuznetsov A.V. System diagnostics of the regional economy. Moscow, LENAND, 2019. 232 p. (in Russian).
  10. Melnikov V.P., Osipov V.I., Brouchkov A.V., Falaleeva A.A., Badina S.V., Zheleznyak M.N., Sadurtdinov M.R., Ostrakov N.A., Drozdov D.S., Osokin A.B., Sergeev D.O., Dubrovin V.A., Fedorov R.Yu. Climate warming and permafrost thaw in the Russian Arctic: potential economic impacts on public infrastructure by 2050. Natural Hazards, 2022. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-05179-6.
  11. Mikhailichenko D. Transpolar sea route: uncertainty or inevitability? GoArctic, 2020. URL: https://goarctic.ru/work/transpolyarnyy-morskoy-put-neopredelennost-ili-neizbezhnost/ (accessed 20.02.2022) (in Russian).
  12. Seaports. Information and analytical journal of the Association of Commercial Sea Ports, 2020. No. 2 (183). URL: http://www.morvesti.ru/publication/mp-02-2020.pdf (date of access: 02/22/2022) (accessed 20.02.2022) (in Russian).
  13. Ogorodov S.A., Shabanova N.N., Kessel A.S. Baranskaya A.V., Razumov S.O. Changes in the hydrometeorological potential of thermal abrasion of the coasts of the seas of the Russian Arctic. Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta, Seriya 5: Geografiya, 2022. No. 1. P. 26–42. (in Russian).
  14. Pilyasov A.N., Putilova E.S. New projects for the development of the Russian Arctic: space matters! Arctic and North, 2020. No. 38. P. 20–42. (in Russian).
  15. Porfiriev B.N., Eliseev D.O., Streletsky D.A. Economic assessment of the consequences of permafrost degradation for the housing sector of the Russian Arctic. Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2021. V. 91 (2). P. 105–114. (in Russian).
  16. Northern Sea Route: history, regions, projects, fleet and fuel supply. Moscow: Skolkovo, 2020. 105 p. URL: https://energy.skolkovo.ru/downloads/documents/SEneC/Research/SKOLKOVO_EneC_RU_Arctic_Vol3.pdf (accessed 20.02.2022) (in Russian).
  17. Northern Sea Route. Results of 2020. Administration of the NSR, “Gekon”. Moscow, 2021. 24 p. URL: https://arctic.gov.ru/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/2020.pdf (accessed 22.02.2022) (in Russian).
  18. Streletskiy D.A., Anisimov O.A., Vasiliev A.A. Permafrost degradation. Snow and ice- related hazards, risks, and disasters. Haeberli W., Whiteman C. (Eds.). Elsevier, 2014. P. 303–344.
  19. Streletskiy D.A., Suter L.J., Shiklomanov N.I., Porfiriev B.N., Eliseev D.O. Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost. Environmental Research Letters, 2019. 14 (2), 025003.

For citation: Badina S.V., Pankratov A.A. Implementation of large investment projects in the Northern sea route coastal territory in the context of climate changes. InterCarto. InterGIS. GI support of sustainable development of territories: Proceedings of the International conference. Moscow: MSU, Faculty of Geography, 2022. V. 28. Part 1. P. 91–104. DOI: 10.35595/2414-9179-2022-1-28-91-104 (in Russian)