Study and modeling of the urban heat island: the case of Tyumen city

DOI: 10.35595/2414-9179-2025-3-31-195-211

View or download the article (Rus)

About the Authors

Valentina A. Dobryakova

University of Tyumen, School of Natural Sciences,
6, Volodarskogo str., Tyumen, 625003, Russia,
E-mail: v.a.dobryakova@utmn.ru

Julia V. Belova

University of Tyumen, School of Natural Sciences,
6, Volodarskogo str., Tyumen, 625003, Russia,
E-mail: y.v.belova@utmn.ru

Liliya D. Cheremnykh

University of Tyumen, School of Natural Sciences,
6, Volodarskogo str., Tyumen, 625003, Russia,
E-mail: sulkarnaeva1992@mail.ru

Abstract

The article presents the results of research and modeling of the urban heat island in Tyumen based on the analysis of Landsat-8 satellite imagery and OpenStreetMap cartographic data. A regression model has been developed that describes the dependence of temperature characteristics on key spatial factors of the urban environment, with a determination coefficient R2 = 0.627. It was revealed that the most significant factors determining the intensity of the urban heat island are the area of buildings, the area of water bodies, the area of arable land, as well as distances to open water, major roads, and industrial facilities. A negative correlation was established between surface temperature and the presence of blue-green infrastructure objects. Analysis of the spatial distribution of temperatures revealed four distinct zones with elevated temperatures within urban heat island territory: a large zone with elevated land surface temperature on the right bank of the Tura River, covering the central part of the city and areas of new multi-story development; a zone on the left bank of the river, spreading along Shcherbakova Street and the Tobolsk Highway; a zone associated with plowed agricultural land beyond the bypass road; and a zone covering Roshchino Airport with the adjacent settlement. Two temperature profiles were constructed through the city center, confirming the significant extent of the urban heat island (more than 50 km along the river and more than 40 km in the perpendicular direction) and the pronounced cooling effect of blue-green infrastructure. Despite the statistical significance of the model, spatial clustering of residuals was identified, indicating the need for further model improvement. The research results have practical significance for resilient urban planning and the development of measures to reduce thermal stress for the population, especially in areas with high building density and insufficient blue-green infrastructure.

Keywords

urban heat island, spatial analysis, regression model

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For citation: Dobryakova V.A., Belova Ju.V., Cheremnykh L.D. Study and modeling of the urban heat island: the case of Tyumen city. InterCarto. InterGIS. Moscow: MSU, Faculty of Geography, 2025. V. 31. Part 3. P. 195–211. DOI: 10.35595/2414-9179-2025-3-31-195-211 (in Russian)