Analysis of stability of population groups in the settlement network of the Republic of Tatarstan in 1959–2021

DOI: 10.35595/2414-9179-2025-3-31-42-60

View or download the article (Rus)

About the Authors

Mihail V. Panasyuk

Kazan Federal University, Geography and Cartography department,
6/20, Kremlyovskaya str., Kazan, 420008, Russia,
E-mail: mp3719@yandex.ru

Elena M. Pudovik

Kazan Federal University, Geography and Cartography department,
6/20, Kremlyovskaya str., Kazan, 420008, Russia,
E-mail: epudovic@mail.ru

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of the dynamics of the population groups stability of the settlement network of Tatarstan in the period 1959–2021, during which its profound changes occurred, leading to new structural relationships between the population groups of settlements, transformation of the spatial structure of settlement. The main feature of this period was the high rate of urbanization. With an increase in the population in 1959–2021 by 41 %, the share of the urban population increased from 41.4 % to 74.8 %, with a corresponding decrease in the share of the rural. This led to the degradation of the rural settlement (RS) system, accompanied by a decrease in the stability of their population groups with high (up to 35 % in some administrative districts) rates of rural population decline. The paper presents the results of studies, including the author’s methods for analysing the dynamics of stability of rural settlement population groups of the region, the characteristics of the spatial data system used to solve analytical problems. Series of GIS maps of population groups stability of settlements in Tatarstan and their population growth rates are presented. The population groups stability analysis was carried out on the basis of cartographic and geoinformation methods. The preliminary stage of the analysis included solving the problems of calculating indices and grouping rural settlements by population groups stability and population growth rates based on mathematical classification methods. For these purposes, along with standard GIS tools, software packages and GIS extension modules, as well as proprietary software, were used. Based on the analysis of the developed GIS maps of population groups dynamics and rural settlements’ growth rates in 1959–2021 for the selected four territories of Tatarstan, the main trends in population groups change and RS network transformation were identified, as well as the main spatial changes in the rural settlement population groups of the region, which differ depending on the settlement patterns, presence of medium and large cities-industrial centres, historical features and the nature of the economic activity of the population. Conclusions are given on the general stability of the rural settlements network and on the dynamics of the spatial structure of settlement system of the Republic of Tatarstan in 1959–2021.

Keywords

geoinformational mapping, cartographic analysis, settlement dynamics, sustainability of settlement network, Republic of Tatarstan

References

  1. Alekseev A.I., Safronov S.G. Typology of Rural Settlements in the European Part of Russia in the Current Demographic and Socio-Economic Situation. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriya 5, Geografiya (Moscow University Bulletin. Series 5. Geography), 2017. No. 6. P. 55–61 (in Russian).
  2. Bagautdinova Kh.Z., Vladimirov O.O., Gabdrafikova L.R., Gainutdinov A.M., Mironova E.V., Nogmanov A.I., Salakhova E.K., Khamidullin S.R. Tatar Villages of South-Eastern Zakamye: Centers of Education and Culture. Kazan: Marjani Institute of History of Tatarstan Academy of Sciences, 2019. 388 p. (in Russian).
  3. Berlyant A.M. Cartographic Method of Research. Moscow: Moscow University Press, 1988. 251 p. (in Russian).
  4. Iskhakov R.R. New Research on the History of Tatar Rural Population in Zakazanye. Historical Ethnology, 2018. No. 1. Web resource: www.cyberleninka.ru/article/n/novoe-issledovanie-po-istorii-tatarskogo-selskogo-naseleniya-zakazanya (accessed 17.04.2025) (in Russian).
  5. Jenks G.F. The Data Model Concept in Statistical Mapping. International Yearbook of Cartography, 1967. V. 7. P. 186–190.
  6. Khalikov A.Kh., Mukhamedyarov Sh.F., Chernyshov E.I. et al. History of the Tatar ASSR (From Ancient Times to the Present Day). Kazan: Tatknigoizdat, 1968. 719 p. (in Russian).
  7. Mikhailichenko A.A. Analytical Review of Methods for Evaluating the Quality of Classification Algorithms in Machine Learning Tasks. The Bulletin of the Adyghe State University, the series “Natural-Mathematical and Technical Sciences”, 2022. No. 4 (311). P. 52–59 (in Russian).
  8. Mukhametov A.R., Biktimirov N.M. Dynamics of the Rural Population of the Republic of Tatarstan in Comparison with All-Russian and World Indicators. Scientific notes of V.I. Vernadsky Crimean Federal University. Geography. Geology, 2021. V. 7. No. 2. P. 157–165 (in Russian).
  9. Mustafin M.R. Geography of Population and Settlements of Tatarstan. Kazan: Publishing House “Kazan”, 1993. 80 p. (in Russian).
  10. Nogmanov A.I., Izmailov I.L., Iskhakov R.R., Aminov R.R., Gainutdinov A.M., Khamidullin S.R., Salakhova E.K., Bagautdinova Kh.Z., Gabdrafikova L.R. Tatar Villages of Eastern Zakamye. Kazan: Marjani Institute of History of Tatarstan Academy of Sciences, 2021. 276 p. (in Russian).
  11. Omelchenko V.V. General Theory of Classification. In Two Parts. Part I. Fundamentals of Systemology of Cognition of Reality. Moscow: PPC “Maska”, 2008. 466 p. (in Russian).
  12. Panasyuk M.V., Pudovik E.M. Analysis of the Dynamics of the Territorial Structure of Settlement in Municipal Districts of the Republic of Tatarstan Using Geoinformation Technologies. InterCarto. InterGIS. Geoinformation Support for Sustainable Development of Regions in Crisis: Proceedings of the International Conference. Moscow: MSU, Faculty of Geography, 2024. V. 30. Part 2. P. 380–395 (in Russian). DOI: 10.35595/2414-9179-2024-2-30-380-395.
  13. Salikhov P., Bushuyev A., Galliamova A., Kabirova A., Sverdlova L., Gibadullin M., Khalikov N., Shaidullin R., Usmanova D., Ainutdinova L., Alekseev I., Mukhametshin R., Zagidullin I., Bushueva L., Akhtyamova A., Zagidullina D. et al. History of the Tatars from Ancient Times: In 7 Volumes. V. VII. Kazan: Marjani Institute of History of Tatarstan Academy of Sciences, 2013. 1008 p. (in Russian).
  14. Semenov-Tyan-Shansky V.P. Region and Country. Moscow–Leningrad: State Publishing House, 1928. 311 p. (in Russian).
  15. Stewart J.Q. Empirical Mathematical Rules Concerning the Distribution and Equilibrium of Population. Geographical Review, 1947. V. 37. No. 3. P. 461–485. DOI: 10.2307/211132.
  16. Tikunov V.S. Modeling in Cartography. Moscow: Moscow University Press, 1997. 405 p. (in Russian).
  17. Yakovleva S.I. Settlement on Regional Territorial Planning Maps. Society and Demography. Pskov Regionological Journal, 2014. No. 18. P. 28–35. (in Russian).

For citation: Panasyuk M.V., Pudovik E.M. Analysis of stability of population groups in the settlement network of the Republic of Tatarstan in 1959–2021. InterCarto. InterGIS. Moscow: MSU, Faculty of Geography, 2025. V. 31. Part 3. P. 42–60. DOI: 10.35595/2414-9179-2025-3-31-42-60 (in Russian)