Assessing future changes of Köppen-Geiger climate zones in Yakutia using CMIP6 regional ensemble

DOI: 10.35595/2414-9179-2025-1-31-431-444

View or download the article (Rus)

About the Authors

Moisei I. Zakharov

North-Eastern Federal University,
46, Kulakovskogo str., Yakutsk, 677007, Russia,
E-mail: mi.zakharov@s-vfu.ru

Nikita I. Tananaev

North-Eastern Federal University,
46, Kulakovskogo str., Yakutsk, 677007, Russia,

P.I. Melnikov Permafrost Institute SB RAS,
36, Merzlotnaya str., Yakutsk, 677010, Russia,

E-mail: tanni@s-vfu.ru

Abstract

The Köppen-Geiger climate classification is widely used for mapping the spatial variability of climatic patterns. The paper is devoted to the assessment of future changes in the location of the Köppen-Geiger climate zones on the territory of Yakutia under four scenarios of socio-economic development of IPCC (ssp1–2.6, ssp2–4.5, ssp3–7.0 and ssp5–8.5). The data from the ensemble of global climate models of the CMIP6 project, which includes models that best reproduce the climatic conditions of the region (CESM2-WACCM, CMCC-ESM2, CNRM-CM6-1-HR, INM-CM5-0, MPI-ESM1-2-HR) were used. Averaged monthly mean air temperature and total precipitation data for the periods 2021–2050, 2051–2080, and 2071–2100 were used. Data have been obtained as the sum of the historical climatic norm 1981–2010 determined from the GHCN-CAMS reanalysis (air temperature) and CRU TS v.4.05 (precipitation), and the increments of the corresponding climatic variables between the historical and forecast periods estimated from the model ensemble data. Köppen-Geiger climate zone maps were constructed for the indicated time slices at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. According to the obtained estimates, the most widespread subarctic climate zone (Dfc) will increase its share on the territory of Yakutia at the expense of the zones of extremely cold climates (Dfd and Dwd), as well as the polar tundra climate (ET), and the polar tundra may be displaced from the continental part by the end of the century. Analysis of climate shifts by settlements indicates a transition from extremely cold climate in almost all district centers of Yakutia regardless of the scenarios. Under the unfavorable scenarios spp3–7.0 and ssp5–8.5, the middle taiga landscapes and all district centers of the central group of districts will find themselves in subarctic climate with hot summers by the second half of the century. Under these conditions, forest fire hazard, soil aridity, and cryolithozone degradation will increase. This study contributes to the understanding of future climate change in the region, the resulting mapping materials contribute to public awareness and inform the development of the regional climate change adaptation plan and other strategic planning documents.

Keywords

climate maps, climate classification, Köppen-Geiger, climate change, SSP projections, Yakutia

References

  1. Alisov B.P. Geographical types of climates. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 1936. No. 6. P. 16–25. (in Russian).
  2. Andrade C., Fonseca A., Santos J.A., Bois B., Jones G.V. Historic Changes and Future Projections in Köppen-Geiger Climate Classifications in Major Wine Regions Worldwide. Climate, 2024. V. 12. No. 94. DOI: 10.3390/cli12070094.
  3. Beck H., Zimmermann N., McVicar T. Vergopolan N., Berg A., Wood E. Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution. Sci Data, 2018. V. 5. P. 180214. DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2018.21.
  4. Berg L.S. Climate and Life, Moscow: Gosizdat (State Publishing House), 1922. 196 p. (in Russian).
  5. Fedorov A.N., Botulu T.A., Varlamov S.P., Vasilyev I.S., Gribanova S.P., Dorofeev I.V., Klimovsky I.V., Samsonova V.V., Soloviev P.A. Permafrost Landscapes in Yakutia. Explanation Note to the Permafrost-Landscape Map of the Yakut ASSR at a scale 1:2 500 000. Novosibirsk: General Administration of Geodesy and Cartography, 1989 (in Russian).
  6. Geiger R. Landolt-Börnstein—Numerical values and functions from physics, chemistry, astronomy, geophysics and engineering, old series. V. 3: Ch. Classification of climates according to W. Köppen. Berlin: Springer, 1954. P. 603–607 (in German).
  7. Gorokhov A.N., Fedorov A.N. Modern trends of climatic changes in Yakutia. Geography and Natural Resources, 2018. No. 2. P. 111–119 (in Russian). DOI: 10.21782/GIPR0206-1619-2018-2(111-119).
  8. Holdridge L.R. Determination of world plant formations from simple climatic data. Science, 1947. V. 105. P. 367–368.
  9. Köppen W. The heat zones of the Earth, considered according to the duration of the hot, temperate and cold period and according to the effect of heat on the organic world. Meteorologische Zeitschrift (Meteorological Journal), 1884. V. 1. P. 215–226 (in German).
  10. Kottek M., Grieser J., Beck C., Rudolf B. Rubel F. World map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated. Meteorologische Zeitschrift (Meteorological Journal), 2006. V. 15. P. 259–263.
  11. O’Neill B.C., Kriegler E., Ebi K.L., Kemp-Benedict E., Riahi K., Rothman D.S., Van Ruijven B.J., Van Vuuren D.P., Birkmann J., Kok K., Levy M., Solecki W. The roads ahead: narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change, 2017. V. 42. P. 169–180. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004.
  12. Peel M.C., Finlayson B.L., McMahon T.A. Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2007. V. 11. P. 1633–1644.
  13. Sa’adi Z., Al-Suwaiyan M., Yaseen Z.M., Tan M.L., Goliattf L., Heddam S., Halder B., Ahmadianfari I., Homod R., Shafik S. Observed and future shifts in climate zone of Borneo based on CMIP6 models. Journal of Environmental Management, 2024. V. 340. P. 121087. DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121087.
  14. Strohmenger L., Collet L., Andreassian V., Corre L., Rousset F., Thirel G. Köppen-Geiger climate classification across France based on an ensemble of high-resolution climate projections. Comptes Rendus. Geoscience, 2024. V. 356. P. 67–82. DOI: 10.5802/crgeos.263.
  15. Tananaev N.I. Selection of the best-performing climate reanalysis model for the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic, based on mean annual air temperature. Vestnik of North-Eastern Federal University. Series “Earth Sciences”, 2023. No. 2. P. 88–101 (in Russian). DOI: 10.25587/SVFU.2023.30.2.008.
  16. Tananaev N.I. Regional ensemble of CMIP6 global climate models for Sakha (Yakutia) Republic, Northern Eurasia. Polar Science, 2024. P. 101066. 13 p.
  17. Tananaev N.I. Selection of the best-performing climate reanalysis model for the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) based on mean annual precipitation. Arctic and Subarctic Natural Resources, 2025. No. 30 (1). P. 61–72 (in Russian). DOI: 10.31242/2618-9712-2025-30-1-61-72.
  18. Tananaev N.I., Timofeyev M.A. Estimation of the accuracy of GHCN-CAMS reanalysis in calculations of the intra-annual distribution of air temperature in the territory of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia). Vestnik of North-Eastern Federal University. Series “Earth Sciences”, 2023. No. 4. P. 99–110 (in Russian). DOI: 10.25587/2587-8751-2023-4-99-110.
  19. Third Assessment Report on Climate Change and its Consequences in the Russian Federation. Rosgidromet. Saint Petersburg: Science Intensive Technologies, 2022. 676 p. (in Russian).
  20. Wong S.L., Wan K., Yang L., Lam J.C. Changes in bio climates in different climates around the world and implications for the built environment. Building and Environment, 2012. V. 57. P. 214–222. DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2012.05.006.
  21. Yoo J., Rohli R. Global distribution of Köppen-Geiger climate types during the Last Glacial Maximum, Mid-Holocene, and present. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 2016. V. 446. P. 326–337. DOI: 10.1016/j.palaeo.2015.12.010.

For citation: Zakharov M. I., Tananaev N. I. Assessing future changes of Köppen-Geiger climate zones in Yakutia using CMIP6 regional ensemble. InterCarto. InterGIS. Moscow: MSU, Faculty of Geography, 2025. V. 31. Part 1. P. 431–444. DOI: 10.35595/2414-9179-2025-1-31-431-444 (in Russian)