Mapping of convective hazardous weather events based on various data sources (on the example of the Perm Region)

DOI: 10.35595/2414-9179-2025-1-31-325-340

View or download the article (Rus)

About the Authors

Sergey V. Pyankov

Perm State University,
15, Bukireva str., Perm, 614990, Russia,
E-mail: pyankovsv@gmail.com

Rinat K. Abdullin

Perm State University,
15, Bukireva str., Perm, 614990, Russia,

Andrey N. Shikhov

Perm State University,
15, Bukireva str., Perm, 614990, Russia,

Abstract

In the presented study, we considered the patterns of the spatial distribution of local convective severe weather events (linear windstorms and tornadoes) on the territory of Perm Region, as well as their relationship with the spatial distribution of lightning activity and convective atmospheric parameters according to the ERA5 reanalysis data. Data on squalls and tornadoes were compiled using several sources, the main one being satellite images of forest damage caused by these storms. We analyzed a total of 397 squall and tornado events from 1984–2024. We also calculated the proportion of the windthrow area caused by these events from the total forest area, and the same from the area of mixed and coniferous forests. The spatial distribution of lightning activity was assessed using the WWLLN lightning detection network data. On the basis of the obtained data, we developed a series of maps of the spatial distribution of squalls and tornadoes, windstorms, lightning activity and recurrence of over-critical values of convective atmospheric parameters according to the ERA5 reanalysis data. As a result of their comparison, it is found that there is no correlation between the spatial distribution of the events and windthrow (on the one hand) and lightning activity and convective parameters (on the other hand). This can be explained by the small area of the analyzed territory, as well as by the fact that windthrow areas are more widespread in the north part of Perm Region, where forests are more vulnerable to wind damage, while the highest values of convective parameters according to the ERA5 data are observed in the southern and eastern parts of the region. Nevertheless, the maximum density of squall and tornado events in the northwest of the region is confirmed by the local maximum of lightning activity in this area, which allows us to consider this maximum as a real one.

Keywords

convective hazardous weather events, mapping, lightning activity, ERA5 reanalysis data, convective atmospheric parameters

References

  1. Bartalev S.A., Egorov V.A., Zharko V.O., Lupyan E.A., Plotnikov D.E., Khvostikov S.A., Shabanov N.V. Satellite-Based Mapping of the Vegetation Cover of Russia. Moscow: Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2016. 208 p. (in Russian).
  2. Chernokulsky A.V., Eliseev A.V., Kozlov F.A., Korshunova N.N., Kurgansky M.V., Mokhov I.I., Semenov V.A., Shvets’ N.V., Shikhov A.N., Yarinich Yu.I. Atmospheric Severe Convective Events in Russia: Changes Observed from Different Data. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 2022. V. 47. P. 343–354. DOI: 10.3103/S106837392205003X.
  3. Chernokulsky A., Kurgansky M., Mokhov I., Shikhov A., Azhigov I., Selezneva E., Zakharchenko D., Antonescu B., Kühne T. Tornadoes in Northern Eurasia: From the Middle Age to the Information Era. Monthly Weather Review, 2020. V. 148. Iss. 8. P. 3081–3111. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-19-0251.1.
  4. Diffenbaugh N.S., Scherer M., Trapp R.J. Robust Increases in Severe Thunderstorm Environments in Response to Greenhouse Forcing. PNAS, 2013. V. 110. Iss. 41. P. 16361–16366. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1307758110.
  5. Doswell C.A. Severe Convective Storms—An Overview. Severe Convective Storms. Meteorological Monographs. Boston, MA: American Meteorological Society, 2001. DOI: 10.1007/978-1-935704-06-5_1.
  6. Edwards R., LaDue J.G., Ferree N.T., Scharfenberg K., Maier C., Coulbourne W.L. Tornado Intensity Estimation: Past, Present, and Future. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2013. V. 94. Iss. 5. P. 641–653. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00006.1.
  7. Feng Z., Leung L.R., Liu N., Wang J., Houze R.A., Li J., Hardin J.C., Chen D., Guo J. A Global High-Resolution Mesoscale Convective System Database using Satellite-Derived Cloud Tops, Surface Precipitation, and Tracking. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2021. V. 126. Iss. 8. Art. e2020JD034202. DOI: 10.1029/2020JD034202.
  8. Groenemeijer P., Kuhne T. A Climatology of Tornadoes in Europe: Results from the European Severe Weather Database. Monthly Weather Review, 2014. V. 142. Iss. 12. P. 4775–4790. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00107.1.
  9. Groenemeijer P., Púčik T., Holzer A.M., Antonescu B., Riemann-Campe K., Schultz D.M., Kühne T., Feuerstein B., Brooks H.E., Doswell C.A., Koppert H., Sausen R. Severe Convective Storms in Europe: Ten Years of Research and Education at the European Severe Storms Laboratory. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2017. V. 98. Iss. 12. P. 2641–2651. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0067.1.
  10. Hersbach H., Bell B., Berrisford P., Hirahara S., Horányi A., Muñoz-Sabater J., Nicolas J., Peubey C., Radu P., Schepers D., Simmons A., Soci C., Abdalla S., Abellan X., Balsamo G., Bechtold P., Biavati G., Bidlot J., Bonavita M., De Chiara G., Dahlgren P., Dee D., Diamantakis M., Dragani R., Flemming J., Forbes R., Fuentes M., Geer A., Haimberger L., Healy S., Hogan R.J., Hólm E., Janisková M., Keeley S., Laloyaux P., Lopez P., Lupu C., Radnoti G., De Rosnay P., Rozum I., Vamborg F., Villaume S., Thépaut J.N. The ERA5 Global Reanalysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2020. V. 146. Iss. 730. P. 1999–2049. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3803.
  11. Kaplan J.O., Lau K.H.-K. The WGLC Global Gridded Lightning Climatology and Time Series. Earth System Science Data, 2021. V. 13. Iss. 7. P. 3219–3237. DOI: 10.5194/essd-13-3219-2021.
  12. Lepore C., Abernathey R., Henderson N., Allen J.T., Tippett M.K. Future Global Convective Environments in CMIP6 Models. Earth’s Future, 2021. V. 9. Iss. 12. Art. e2021EF002277. DOI: 10.1029/2021EF002277.
  13. Radler T., Groenemeijer P., Faust E., Sausen R., Púčik T. Frequency of Severe Thunderstorms Across Europe Expected to Increase in the 21st Century Due to Rising Instability. NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2019. V. 2. Art. 30. DOI: 10.1038/s41612-019-0083-7.
  14. Shikhov A.N., Abdullin R.K., Chernokulsky A.V., Azhigov I.O., Yarinich Y.I., Sprygin A.A., Korenev D.P. Development of a GIS Database and Web Service “Hazardous Convective Weather Events on the Territory of Central Federal District”. InterCarto. InterGIS. Proceedings of the International Conference. Moscow: Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty of Geography, 2021. V. 27. Part 3. P. 120–135 (in Russian). DOI: 10.35595/2414-9179-2021-3-27-120-135.
  15. Shikhov A., Chernokulsky A., Kalinin N., Bykov A., Pischalnikova E. Climatology and Formation Environments of Severe Convective Windstorms and Tornadoes in the Perm Region (Russia) in 1984–2020. Atmosphere, 2021. V. 12. Iss. 11. Art. 1407. DOI: 10.3390/atmos12111407.
  16. Shikhov A.N., Chernokulsky A.V., Kalinin N.A., Pyankov S.V. Windthrow in the Forest Zone of Russia and Conditions of Their Occurrence. Perm: Perm State University, 2023. 284 p. (in Russian).
  17. Shikhov A.N., Yarinich Yu.I., Chernokulsky A.V. Association of Spatial and Temporal Windthrow Distribution with Convective Parameters and Lightning Density in Russia. Geography. Environment. Sustainability, 2025. V. 18. No. 1. P. 75–88. DOI: 10.24057/2071-9388-2025-3590.
  18. Taszarek M., Allen J.T., Marchio M., Brooks H.E. Global Climatology and Trends in Convective Environments from ERA5 and Rawinsonde Data. NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2021. V. 4. Art. 35. DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00190-x.
  19. Taszarek M., Allen J.T., Púčik T., Hoogewind K.A., Brooks H.E. Severe Convective Storms Across Europe and the United States. Part II: ERA5 Environments Associated with Lightning, Large Hail, Severe Wind, and Tornadoes. Journal of Climate, 2020. V. 33. Iss. 23. P. 10263–10286. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0346.1.
  20. Tippett M.K., Allen J.T., Gensini V.A., Brooks H.E. Climate and Hazardous Convective Weather. Current Climate Change Reports, 2015. V. 1. P. 60–73. DOI: 10.1007/s40641-015-0006-6.

For citation: Pyankov S.V., Abdullin R.K., Shikhov A.N. Mapping of convective hazardous weather events based on various data sources (on the example of the Perm Region). InterCarto. InterGIS. Moscow: MSU, Faculty of Geography, 2025. V. 31. Part 1. P. 325–340. DOI: 10.35595/2414-9179-2025-1-31-325-340 (in Russian)