METHOD OF FOREST FIRES PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT WITH POISSON LAW

https://doi.org/10.24057/2414-9179-2016-1-22-142-148

View or download the article (Rus)

About the Authors

A. S. Plotnikova

Center for forest ecology and productivity Russian Academy of Sciencies
Russian Federation

Ph.D, researcher

Moscow, 117997, Russia, Profsouznaya str., 84/32

D. V. Ershov

Center for forest ecology and productivity Russian Academy of Sciencies
Russian Federation

Ph.D, Deputy Director

Moscow, 117997, Russia, Profsouznaya str., 84/32

P. P. Shulyak

Center for forest ecology and productivity Russian Academy of Sciencies
Russian Federation

researcher

Moscow, 117997, Russia, Profsouznaya str., 84/32

Abstract

The article describes the method for the forest fire burn probability estimation on a base of Poisson distribution. The λ parameter is assumed to be a mean daily number of fires detected for each Forest Fire Danger Index class within specific period of time. Thus, λ was calculated for spring, summer and autumn seasons separately. Multi-annual daily Forest Fire Danger Index values together with EO-derived hot spot map were input data for the statistical analysis. The major result of the study is generation of the database on forest fire burn probability. Results were validated against EO daily data on forest fires detected over Irkutsk oblast in 2013. Daily weighted average probability was shown to be linked with the daily number of detected forest fires. Meanwhile, there was found a number of fires which were developed when estimated probability was low. The possible explanation of this phenomenon was provided.

Keywords

risk of forest fire, Poisson law, use of satellite data on fires.

References

  1. Baranovskiy N.V., Grishin A.M., Loskutnikova T.P. Informazionno-prognosticheskaya sistema opredelenia veroiatnosti vozniknovenia lesnih pogarov [Information-prediction system of determination of forest fires probability] // Vichislitelnie tehnologii. 2003. № 2. Pp. 16–26.
  2. Bartalev S.A., Ershov D.V., Korovin G.N., Kotelnikov R.V., Tshetinski V.E. Osnovnie vozmognosti i structura informazionnoy sistemy distanzionnogo monitoringa lesnih pogarov Federalnogo agentstva lesnogo hoziaystva (ISDM Rosleshoz) [The main functionalities and structure of the Forest Fire Satellite Monitoring Information System of Russian Federal Forestry Agency (SMIS-Rosleshoz)] // Sovremennie problemy distanzionnogo zondirovania Zemli iz kosmosa. 2010. T.7. № 2. Pp. 97–105.
  3. Vonskiy S.M., Gdanko V.A. Prinzipy razrabotki meteorologicheskih pokazateley pogarnoy opasnosty v lesu [Development of meteorological fire danger rating in the forest]. Metodicheskie recomendazii. L.: LenNEELH. 1976. 47 p.
  4. Gmurman V.E. Teoria veroyatnostey i matematicheskaya statistika [Probability theory and mathematical statistics]. M., Vysch.shk., 2003. 479 p.
  5. Grishin A.M., Filkov A.E. Prognoz vozniknovenia i rasprostranenia lesnix pogarov [The forecast of forest fires occurrence and spread]. Monografia. Kemerovo: izd-vo Praktika, 2005. 202 p.
  6. Korovin G.N., Pokryvaylo V.D., Solodovnikova N.E. Analiz i modelirovanie statisticheskoy structury polia gorimosti lesov [Analysis and modeling of the statistical structure of burning forests field]. LenNEELH, 1984.
  7. Kuznetsov G.V., Baranovskiy N.V. Prognoz vozniknovenia lesnix pogarov i ih ekologicheskix posledstiy [Forest fires and their environmental effects occurrence forecast]. Novosibirsk: izd-vo SO RAN, 2009. 301 p.
  8. Nesterov V.G. Voprosy sovremennogo lesovodstva [Questions of contemporary forestry]. M.: Selhozgiz. 1961.
  9. Plotnikova A.S., Ershov D.V., Shulyak P.P. Ispolzovanie zakona Puassona dlia ozenki veroiatnosti vozniknovenia lesnih pogarov na territorii Irtutskoy oblasti [Using Poisson law for forest fires probability assessment on the Irkutsk region]. Regionalnye problemy distanzionnogo zondirovania Zemli: materialy megdunarodnoy nauch.konf. Krasnoyarsk: Sib.feder.un-t, 2014. Pp. 237–241.
  10. Podolskaya A.S., Ershov D.V., Shulyak P.P. Primenenie metoda ozenki veroyatnosti vozniknovenia lesnih pogarov v ISDM-Rosleshoz [Forest fire occurrence probability assessment: method and approach in Russian remote monitoring information system (ISDM-Rosleskhoz)]. Sovremennie problemy distanzionnogo zondirovania Zemli iz kosmosa. 2011. T.8. № 1. Pp. 118–126.

For citation: Plotnikova A.S., Ershov D.V., Shulyak P.P. METHOD OF FOREST FIRES PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT WITH POISSON LAW. Proceedings of the International conference “InterCarto. InterGIS”. 2016;22(1):142-148. https://doi.org/10.24057/2414-9179-2016-1-22-142-148