METHOD OF FOREST FIRES PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT WITH POISSON LAW

DOI: 10.24057/2414-9179-2016-1-22-142-148

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About the Authors

A. S. Plotnikova

Center for forest ecology and productivity Russian Academy of Sciencies
Russian Federation

Ph.D, researcher

Moscow, 117997, Russia, Profsouznaya str., 84/32

D. V. Ershov

Center for forest ecology and productivity Russian Academy of Sciencies
Russian Federation

Ph.D, Deputy Director

Moscow, 117997, Russia, Profsouznaya str., 84/32

P. P. Shulyak

Center for forest ecology and productivity Russian Academy of Sciencies
Russian Federation

researcher

Moscow, 117997, Russia, Profsouznaya str., 84/32

Abstract

The article describes the method for the forest fire burn probability estimation on a base of Poisson distribution. The λ parameter is assumed to be a mean daily number of fires detected for each Forest Fire Danger Index class within specific period of time. Thus, λ was calculated for spring, summer and autumn seasons separately. Multi-annual daily Forest Fire Danger Index values together with EO-derived hot spot map were input data for the statistical analysis. The major result of the study is generation of the database on forest fire burn probability. Results were validated against EO daily data on forest fires detected over Irkutsk oblast in 2013. Daily weighted average probability was shown to be linked with the daily number of detected forest fires. Meanwhile, there was found a number of fires which were developed when estimated probability was low. The possible explanation of this phenomenon was provided.

Keywords

risk of forest fire, Poisson law, use of satellite data on fires

References

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For citation: Plotnikova A.S., Ershov D.V., Shulyak P.P. METHOD OF FOREST FIRES PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT WITH POISSON LAW. Proceedings of the International conference “InterCarto. InterGIS”. 2016;22(1):142–148 DOI: 10.24057/2414-9179-2016-1-22-142-148 (in Russian)